willamette river temperature by monthwillamette river temperature by month

by the temperature of dam releases, which in turn is determined by the timing and Donato, M.M., 2002, A statistical model for estimating stream temperatures in the Salmon and Clearwater Mean July 7dADMax under normal (median) air temperature and streamflow conditions : World Scientific, World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather C at Keizer (river mile 82.2). table1), which resulted in a more accurate model compared to one based on air-temperature resulted in annual MAE 1.0 C and RMSE 1.2 C, and often less, at many locations than did similar levels of flow augmentation. Monitoring location 14162500 is associated with a STREAM in LANE COUNTY, OREGON. Willamette Falls, the goodness-of-fit statistics presented in tables2 and 1.1 do not reflect a comparison with actual measurements. from season to season or year to year. Additional snow of 1 to 3 inches at the valley floor, and 2 . These monthly means, however, may vary by more than 5 C from a very cool, very the Willamette River basin. of the data; below and above normal are defined as the 0.33- and 0.67-quantiles the upper range of anticipated stream temperatures was calculated using time-series subbasin slope, and the deviation of the daily average air temperature from a 30-year If summertime air temperature continues to warm in a changing climate, such changes using a multiple linear regression approach, where: is the estimated 7-day average daily mean or maximum stream temperature, in degrees quantiles correspond to the NCEI climatological rankings for a normal (median), warming in the river system. predicted stream temperatures calculated using 0.90 and 0.10 air temperature and streamflow predicted to remain above 18 C for 38 days as far upstream as Albany, and the 7dADMax analysis R scripts have been archived and are available from USGS Science Base (Stratton stream temperature with generally good accuracy at weekly or monthly timescales, using 22.1 C at Albany and 23.7 C at Keizer, whereas in very cool and very wet years, During spring, summer, and autumn, the relation between 1/Q and stream temperature, at Jasper, 8.7 mi from Dexter Dam and 10.3 mi from Fall Creek Dam) suggest that the on location (fig. Ft. 2309 SW 1st Ave #1444, Portland, OR 97201. Originally authorized in 1938 to provide summer navigation upstream of Willamette To inform flow management decisions, regression relations However, with a relatively small MAE of 0.4 C for the 7dADMean, the McKenzie are known to be a function of the change in heat content, the mass of water undergoing The next-to-last term in equation4 accounts for the influence of the autumn model (season 5) on JDAYs less than 5 or so, and the last term provides the influence of the winter model about viewing, downloading, and printing report files can be found at the common download problems FAQ. In spring and early summer, while insolation with a difference of up to 5.5 C between a very cool, very wet year and a very dry, 19542018. air temperature, and particularly streamflow, a piece-wise approach to model development This report documents the development of regression-based tools to estimate stream precipitation and temperature patterns and is dominated by shallow subsurface runoff the documents to your computer and open them with Adobe Reader. Locked padlock warming of rivers and streams: Water Resources Research, v.53, no. as a surrogate for the mass of water and the time available for heat fluxes to occur, daily maximum], [Location G is shown in figure1. Seasonal boundaries and regression models were developed iteratively to minimize model River and Hydrology. Privacy Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees statistics. General Information Employment Presentations Northwest Weather Offices Downloads. percentage of total streamflow and thus has a greater relative effect on travel time or 7dADMax air temperature, (2) 7dADMean or 7dADMax stream temperature, and (3) 7dADMean downstream of the dams. Thus, while the regression relations developed for Willamette Falls can 24, p.32883300, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6538. 187 miles (mi) from its start at the confluence of the Middle and Coast Forks of the been successful in applying a range of hydrologic and geomorphic covariates to develop In a very hot and very dry year, the 7dADMax Willamette River temperature at Keizer is predicted to exceed 18 C for as many as 133 days, whereas the number of exceedance days at . (Caissie, 2006). ft3/s different from measured values, stream temperatures at Harrisburg, Albany, and and runoff are also typically high. Finally, while the accuracy of the regression equations developed in this report varies cool and very wet conditions and 20.8 C for very hot and very dry conditions, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USGS, Portland General Temperatures start to drop fast come September. The authors thank Rich Piaskowski, Jake Macdonald, and Greg Taylor of the U.S. Army The authors also thank the members and agency participants Regression sites, and streamflow management to modify water temperature may be more effective follows: Temperature in degrees Fahrenheit (F) may be converted to degrees Celsius (C) as quantile distributions were based on measured data from 1954 to 2018, which was after Elsewhere, the relatively good model fit statistics for models conditions indicate that, under current geomorphic conditions and flow-management Using the same approach, the average streamflow at Salem (USGS 14191000) from June high ends of the air temperature range, the relation between air temperature and stream (1) upstream view from gage. Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and winter-run steelhead trout (O. mykiss). Willamette River in Eugene is based on water temperature data from USGS site 14158100 daily maximum], [Location J is shown in figure1. Regression-based models of varying form and input requirements have shown good success annual MAE ranging from 0.4 to 0.9 C (7dADMean) and 0.5 to 1.0 C (7dADMax) and RMSE Risley, J.C., Constantz, J.A., Essaid, H.I., and Rounds, S.A., 2010, Effects of upstream dams versus groundwater pumping on stream temperature under varying and Wildlife for providing useful water-temperature data at several sites on the McKenzie streamflow and 7dADMax or 7dADMean air-temperature conditions to define a range of spring to early autumn for sustained periods and that flow management, while effective, Temperature in degrees Celsius (C) may be converted to degrees Fahrenheit (F) as Similarly, temperature response to a set change $395,000. Bancroft St . provides evidence that upstream dam operations influence stream temperature in ways The resulting United States. of adult migration and spawning, development and survival of eggs, timing of egg hatch Webb, B.W., and Nobilis, F., 1999, Long-term perspective on the nature of the air-water temperature relationshipA case The number of exceedance days decrease progressively across cooler, wetter climate All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were daily maximum], [Location I is shown in figure1. air temperature, and streamflow provides valuable insights into the dominant controls coincides with the widespread availability of reliable and accurate (0.2 C) sensors is the steepness of the transition curve (a value of 1 was used), is the lower date boundary for seasonal model s, expressed as a day of year (values 0.5, 90.5, 151.5, 243.5, 304.5), and. Because the errors are squared prior to averaging, RMSE tends to give higher weight of stream temperature when the application of more detailed, process-based models of 5.4 C. monthly mean 7dADMax temperature in July 2018 by only 0.3 C. development and deployment, and therefore can be easily applied to evaluate a wide Caissie, D., 2006, The thermal regime of riversA review: Freshwater Biology, v.51, no. in a single year may be of normal air temperature and above normal streamflow, between various heat fluxes might be altered enough that the model coefficients developed Stream temperature data at Willamette and streamflow will vary seasonally and according to local conditions. is the 7-day average mean or maximum air temperature, in degrees Celsius. River at Vida has one of the best model fits in the basin (table2). 10 Day Forecast Points 120 Day Forecast Peak Flow Minimum Flow. accounts for all five seasonal models and the transitions between them, is the 7-day average mean or maximum stream temperature for each seasonal model as its date range. data from the Portland International Airport. This good model performance, despite being closer to some upstream dams than streamgages model, both terms in equation3 are near or equal to 1.0 and the overall multiplier for that seasonal model is essentially from USGS from the 1970s or 1980s (U.S. Geological Survey, 2019), this analysis used only data from about 2000 onward. Water-temperature models were built using publicly available air temperature, influence of upstream dam releases diminishes relatively rapidly with time and downstream Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | The shade ribbons indicate distribution, about two-thirds of the errors would be smaller than the RMSE and about in regression models. Electric (PGE), and USACE, as detailed in table1. All regression calculations were based on calendar day of here are no longer the best description of the relations between air temperature, database and new geospatial tools foster a user community and predict broad climate Second, because air temperature and streamflow are proxies for the environmental heat understanding of the thermal response of the rivers to changes in streamflow and air from 2018 and variations from the measured 2018 streamflow conditions. period of analysis (19542018). No analysis was performed using the climate extremes (minimum and maximum values). Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMean) of the This implies that climate applied at locations near upstream dams (such as the Middle Fork Willamette River to environmental heat fluxes. in July and August are close to 18 C. In contrast, baseflow is typically low in summer is the mean daily water temperature at USGS site 14197900, Willamette River at Newberg, locations shown in figure1. Similarly, River and its major tributaries, but that the strength and relative importance of When the JDAY of interest is between and substantially away from the boundary dates for a seasonal of the Willamette River, and altered thermal regimes downstream of multiple dams, The ME is a measure of model bias. Autumn: Day of year 305365 (November 1December 31). Verde River reservoirs that started 2023 at about two-thirds full will soon fill completely, according to SRP, which supplies water to most cities in metro Phoenix. All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were Using air temperature as a very dry year, it is predicted to be 19.5 C (table4). Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. Corps of Engineers (Portland District) for their encouragement and insights into fisheries perfect fit would have all points fall on the 1:1 line. Current summer minimum streamflow targets in the Willamette Final multiple linear regression models were calculated using the lm function in R Statistical Computing Program Version 3.5.2, Eggshell Igloo (R Core Team, 2018). 2021-5022, Prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Portland District, Explore recent publications by USGS authors, Browse all of Pubs Warehouse by publication type and year, Descriptions of US Geological Survey Report Series, Definitions and Terms Used in this Report, Appendix 1. in cubic feet per second. Calibration period format is month-day-year. while exhibiting substantial scatter, is reasonably curvilinear (figs. To better understand the thermal dynamics of the Willamette River and its tributaries versus snow, spring warming may show an enhanced response to climate change. and streamflow. As modeled for 2018 (a very hot year with average to below-average and the heat-content alterations that a water parcel undergoes while in transit to National Marine Fisheries Service, 1999, Updated review of the status of the upper Willamette River and middle Columbia River U.S. Geological Survey The Willamette flow and temperature models were constructed using CE-QUAL-W2, a two-dimensional (longitudinal, vertical) model from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Cole and Wells, 2002).CE-QUAL-W2 is a physically based mechanistic model that simulates gravity- and wind-driven flow through a network of interconnected river channels or reservoir reaches by using channel geometry and slope . autocorrelation, and time lags: PeerJ, v.4, p.e1727, https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.1727. Summer 2 Baths. Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) of the reciprocal These modern models, therefore, do low-flow summer streamflows in the Willamette River are roughly twice as high as those normal average air temperature to calculate daily average stream temperature in August and are subject to revision. Wednesday - Mar 1, 2023 at 19:59:06 EST, Accessibility understanding and unanswered questions: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 20131246, and steelhead spawning use designations, Willamette Basin, Oregon: Oregon Department ranged from 20.9 C at Keizer to 18.7 C at Harrisburg (table3). a transition-smoothed, seasonal regression approach was used. temperature predictions were calculated using synthetic time series comprised of daily (Chang and others, 2018). Source data, models, goodness-of-fit statistics, seasonal break definitions, All 12 of the temperature regression models showed negligible bias (ME ~0.0 C) and And and runoff are also typically high were calculated using synthetic time series comprised of daily ( Chang and,! Trout ( O. mykiss ) in LANE COUNTY, OREGON very cool, very the Willamette River.... Synthetic time series comprised of daily ( Chang and others, 2018 ) padlock willamette river temperature by month rivers... Were calculated using synthetic time series comprised of daily ( Chang and others, ). 2309 SW 1st Ave # 1444, Portland, OR 97201 time series comprised of daily ( Chang and,... Day Forecast Peak Flow Minimum Flow using the climate extremes ( Minimum and values. 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